Report on the 11th Tongil-Hankook Forum

Regarding that question, Dr. Chan, Young-Keun (Hankook Aerospace University) held the following presentation on: “At what stage is the current technological advance of North Korea’s intercontinental missiles?”. In his speech, Dr. Chang elucidated the following content:

- North Korea successfully test-fired a Hwasung-12 IRBM (Intermediate-range Ballistic Missile) on May 14, 2017 as well as a Hwasung-14 ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) on July 4, 2017.

- The development of the Hwasung-12 IRBM displays an important milestone as a sep towards the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can reach US-American soil with its maximum distance of more than 10.000km.

- The Hwasung-12 IRBM is estimated to reach as far as 4.260km with an RV (Re-entry Vehicle) of about 900kg (in case of a 600kg nuclear warhead).

- Supposedly, the Hwasung-14 ICBM can reach about 6.223km with an RV of about 1200kg (in case of a 900kg nuclear warhead). But if a downsizing and weight reduction be technologically possible, the ICBM could reach a distance of around 11.000km with an RV of 500kg (in case of a 200kg nuclear warhead).

- On July 4, 2017, the Hwasung-14 ICBM reached the expected range, although it would require two to three more years of development for a missile that can assure stability, reliability and the necessary precision for an actual missile launch.

5 discussants participated in the following debate:

Mr. Shin, Seok-Ho (Journalist, Dong-A Ilbo): Maintaining power is the regime’s main target of the frequent nuclear and missile tests. Those provocations will prevail and the regime will never give up on their nuclear capabilities. Therefore, the negotiation attempts of the South Korean administration are pointless. It should rather try to inform its citizens appropriately about the current situation.

Prof. Dr. Kimi, Dong-Yop (Kyungnam University): The missile launched by North Korea on July 4, 2017, is an ICBM. North Korea’s ultimate goal is a direct strike towards the USA with that. Therefore, an ICBM required to have a range of more than 8.000km. According to his assessment, North Korea is still lacking the appropriate technology for that nuclear warhead to function properly.

Prof. Dr. Kim, Jae-Chun (Sogang University): The question on Korea has reached a difficult state. A determined and strategic behavior is important for the current South Korean government, hence a political coordination with the USA is essential. The sanctioning against North Korea needs to be continued, but we should be ready to engage into talks at the same time. Military measurements are not a suitable option.

Dr. Park, Byung-Kwang (Institute for National Security Strategy): If the new South Korean Moon, Jae-In-administration wants to be dominant in talks with North Korea, the following strategies will be necessary:

1. Clear recognition of reality

2. Exchange of opinions and political coordination with the USA

3. Revival of communications with North Korea

4. Acquiring the support of China in specific matters

5. Efficient pressure leverage on North Korea

Prof. Dr. Shin, Beom-Chul (Korea National Diplomatic Academy): In the power play with the USA, North Korea represents China’s best asset. Due to its nuclear weapons, North Korea even possesses certain influence opportunities in the power game. But does this mean that Kim, Jeon-Un has accomplished success? No, he would very likely be a victim in further developments in this state of affairs.